Stories
Stories
The Road Less Traveled
Topics: Transportation-Transportation NetworksTransportation-GeneralEnvironment-Environmental Sustainability
The Road Less Traveled
Topics: Transportation-Transportation NetworksTransportation-GeneralEnvironment-Environmental Sustainability
The Road Less Traveled
Most cars in the United States weigh more than 4,000 pounds, and new models are trending larger, even in countries where people drive less. And the larger the vehicle, the more fuel required to power it, which means more greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Yet cars remain the most popular worldwide choice for getting around—even for the short, solo trips that make up most of driving life in dense cities and sprawling suburbs.
Swapping in smaller, energy-efficient electric vehicles, like bicycles and scooters, for this short-range, day-to-day travel, says Horace Dediu (MBA 1996), is a more sustainable, space-saving, and fun solution.
Dediu started thinking about these alternatives around 2012, while working with Clayton Christensen at the late HBS professor’s disruptive innovation think tank. In 2018, Dediu coined micromobility as an umbrella term for lightweight transport (less than 1,000 pounds). That same year, he launched Micromobility Industries, a media company that hosts webinars and global conferences, from Amsterdam to Southern California, and publishes news and reviews about the latest models of e-bikes, mopeds, and more.
“No one’s saying that we have to tear down the highways. That might happen, but it’ll happen because they’re no longer needed.”
Dediu says he envisions “unbundling the car,” much like Steve Jobs “famously unbundled the album. So instead of buying 10 songs, you bought one song, the one you liked.” The world’s 1.5 billion cars still have a place in the mix, since they’re well-suited to long trips with several passengers. But Dediu wants to ease them out of the equation for the millions of short hops in car-dominant countries. (For instance, about three-quarters of drives in the United States are less than three miles.) There’s already proof the transition is viable: A recent study in Switzerland found 51 percent of those surveyed said they now use their car less often having bought an e-bike.
Micromobility adopters may ultimately decide to give up car ownership overall, in favor of renting a large vehicle on occasion, according to Dediu. There are already cargo-level e-bikes that can safely carry kids plus grocery bags, or tow containers to deliver goods along narrow city streets. “No one’s saying that we have to tear down the highways,” he says. “That might happen, but it’ll happen because they’re no longer needed.”
In cities where private car ownership isn’t yet prevalent, Dediu hopes preference tilts to micromobility, as it has in India. Drivers there have long favored gas-powered motorcycles and scooters, but one analysis projects new electric versions will make up nearly three-quarters of purchases by 2030. Around the world, Dediu notes, increasing sales will then drive down prices and make micromobility more accessible for all.
A global embrace, Dediu says, is the best bet for reducing the 25 percent of greenhouse emissions attributed to the transport sector. “I’ve done all the projections,” Dediu says. “If you want to meet climate targets, unless you switch to micromobility, you are simply not going to meet those targets. That’s an argument to be made at the highest levels of government.”
Methods for measuring micromobility’s carbon footprint are evolving, but there is research to support Dediu’s calculations. One recent study found that if 31 percent of existing short car trips around the small city of Trani, Italy, were completed using a micromobility option instead, there would be an emissions savings of about 21 percent. Even a 2019 paper that cautioned against overestimating the environmental benefits of shared dockless e-scooters—because many riders choose them over walking or pedaling a bike—pointed out that “choosing an e-scooter over driving a personal automobile with a fuel efficiency of 26 miles per gallon results in a near universal decrease in global warming impacts.”
Private micromobility nicely complements other lighter-footprint travel options, such as on-demand sharing services and public transportation, Dediu says. While sharing business models have encountered bumps across the United States—he says there was an overinvestment—he sees a much rosier big picture, certainly in Europe.
As for public transportation, consider commuters who leave cars sitting in parking lots at rail stations, waiting for their post-workday return. Now imagine riding a bike that you can carry, folded up, onto the train to work. City-center dwellers, too, might enjoy a foldable, totable scooter to get from apartment to bus stop, or subway stop to office.
Of course, an increase in bikes, scooters, and mopeds will require new regulations and investment in street design to ensure safety for all users. Dediu estimates the spending needed is “one-tenth the cost of automobile infrastructure.” Plus, he says, there’s already return-on-investment proof. The Dutch, who are world-renowned for their bicycling culture, “have one of the healthiest populations, and their cost of health care is super low,” Dediu notes. “An investment in good infrastructure for micromobility will pay off in terms of reduction in health care costs.”
However you crunch the numbers, Dediu believes that the best carrot for luring people to micromobility is the way it injects joy into getting from point A to B. That fun factor may show more potential than convincing people with the economics or the environment. “Micromobility vehicles are ridden; they’re not driven. Riding is fun. Driving is work,” he says. And zipping around on a scooter feels like flying. “Every person who does it for a few minutes will come away saying how much fun they’re having.”
Post a Comment
Related Stories
-
- 13 Jan 2021
- HBS Alumni News
Stress Test
Re: Andrew Kelley (MBA 2002) -
- 19 Sep 2019
- HBS Alumni Bulletin
Predicting Human Behaviors
Re: Sid Misra (MBA 2013); By: April White -
- 22 Aug 2019
- Bloomberg
Getting There
Re: Anthony Tan (MBA 2011); Ling Tan (MBA 2011) -
- 27 Mar 2019
- Making A Difference
Sharing the Road
Re: Sakshi Vij (GMP 23)