Stories
Stories
Decoding the Promise and Perils of Generative AI
ChatGPT burst into the public consciousness on November 30, 2022. Within two months, the generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) software, which leverages a large language model (LLM) to produce human-like, text-based conversations, had reached an estimated 100 million users, and, by February 2023, Google and Bing both launched their own versions of a chatbot for search. The AI boom was underway—and so was the AI research boom.
Many predict that GenAI will change the face of business as dramatically as the rise of the internet did. Through their work with the Digital Data Design Institute at Harvard, a pioneering hub dedicated to the study of transformative technologies, numerous HBS faculty members have turned their attention to researching the impact of these tools. In just the first year of the technology’s widespread availability, they have explored a range of topics on the opportunities, impact, and risks of GenAI. Several of these research efforts are highlighted below.
Karim Lakhani
Edward McFowland III
How Will Generative AI Change Consulting?
To test the capabilities of GPT-4—the LLM that powers
ChatGPT’s paid product—in handling tasks typically
associated with common consulting projects, Karim
Lakhani, the Dorothy and Michael Hintze Professor of
Business Administration and cofounder and chair of the
Institute; Assistant Professor Edward McFowland III;
and their working paper coauthors discovered a “jagged
technological frontier”: some tasks were completed more
effectively with AI, while others of seemingly similar
difficulty flummoxed the current technology. However,
for the tasks the researchers designed to be within GPT-
4’s capabilities, consultants of all skill levels completed
their work more quickly and with higher-quality results,
the authors found. The study, in which more than 750
consultants participated, was conducted in cooperation
with Boston Consulting Group. In the working paper
on the experiment, the authors advocate for a nuanced
approach to AI implementation, but are bullish about
its contributions. “Similarly to how the internet and
web browsers dramatically reduced the marginal cost
of information sharing,” they write, “AI may also be
lowering the costs associated with human thinking
and reasoning, with potentially broad and transformative
effects.”
Rembrand Koning
Rowan Clarke
Can a Chatbot Be
an Entrepreneurship
Mentor?
In the first-known
randomized test of the
impact of GenAI on firms in a
developing economy, Rembrand
Koning, the Mary V. and Mark A.
Stevens Associate Professor of
Business Administration; PhD
candidate Rowan Clarke;
and their coauthors at
Berkeley Haas developed an
“AI mentor” to offer advice
to entrepreneurs. They
found that high-performing
businesses functioned even
better with the help of the
software, while low-performing
ones did worse. As the researchers
note, entrepreneurship is a complex undertaking.
A startup founder’s day can veer from routine
memos to unexpected management questions to
high-stakes strategy development. They wanted to
know if GPT-4 could guide entrepreneurs through
these disparate tasks. To answer this question, they
made the tool available via WhatsApp to a subset
of entrepreneurs in Kenya. This included the owner
of a low-performing milk-selling business who was
focused on business expansion and the owner of a
high-performing fast-food restaurant who wanted
to differentiate it in a competitive environment.
In their working paper, the authors hypothesize
this difference resulted from “low-performing
entrepreneurs asking for advice on particularly
challenging problems.” They also noted, “While
the AI bot generated well-structured advice in
response to these difficult questions, our findings
suggest that when low-performing entrepreneurs
actually put that advice into action, the end
result was performance declines relative to
our control group.”
Ayelet Israeli
Will Large Language Models Replace
Traditional Market Research?
LLMs could serve as a more
cost-effective alternative to
methods such as conjoint
studies, focus groups, and
proprietary data sets in the
market researcher’s toolbox,
Ayelet Israeli, the Marvin
Bower Associate Professor,
and her coauthors noted in a
recent working paper. In a study that utilized GPT-
3.5, a predecessor to GPT-4, the authors tested the
model’s ability to mirror basic tenets of consumer
demand. Presented with two consumers—one
with an annual income of $50,000 and one with
an annual income of $120,000—and laptops of
different price points, GPT-3.5 drew a reasonable
demand curve. They then used GPT-3.5 to predict
consumers’ willingness to pay for products—such
as toothpaste with and without fluoride—and
found that the results were “strikingly similar” to
those produced by recent traditional consumer
surveys. Although the research is preliminary,
the authors say LLMs could be an affordable
alternative for marketers. “Whereas a survey of
real customers may cost many thousands of dollars
and take weeks or months to implement, each of
our studies ran in a matter of minutes or hours and
the total cost to generate all the data in the paper
was under $100,” they wrote.
Hima Lakkaraju
Seth Neel
What Happens When AI Is Trained
on Protected Data?
To function effectively, predictive models
such as ChatGPT are trained on massive
amounts of historical data, some of
which may be personal, proprietary,
or copyrighted. In a research
paper they coauthored, assistant
professors Hima Lakkaraju and
Seth Neel explored what happens
when information needs to be
removed after models are trained on
protected data. As they explain, since
information about the underlying data
can leak into model outputs, for example
when ChatGPT regurgitates verbatim
a passage from a Harry Potter book
that was in the training set, it may
be necessary to retrain the model
with the data in question removed.
Retraining can be incredibly costly
for modern generative models, and
so they develop techniques that can
efficiently “unlearn” a target set of
training examples, without having to
retrain from scratch. The study suggests
that future research should focus on
determining ways to reduce these privacy risks,
like increasing privacy in the training process, and
on ways to evaluate whether the effect of a data
point has really been “removed.”
For HBS and Harvard AI-related resources, please visit alumni.hbs.edu/GenAI-Resources.
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