Photo by Russ Campbell

Photo by Russ Campbell

From its seat at the tip of South America, belted by the equator, Colombia enjoys fairly steady temperatures—an evenness that’s counterbalanced by the seesawing of two rainy seasons and two dry seasons every year. Those peak periods of sun and rain make Colombia a potential powerhouse for renewable energy, and already 70 to 80 percent of its power comes from hydroelectric dams. But the volatility also means moments of scarcity, when renewable energy can’t be relied upon to keep the lights on. These fluctuations in the weather represent one of the greatest challenges for the future of renewables and the promise of meeting the Paris Climate goals by 2050, says Assistant Professor Jorge Tamayo. His paper, “Saving for a Dry Day: Coal, Dams, and the Energy Transition,” examines Colombia’s example for lessons on the transition to renewables.

Tamayo and coauthor Michele Fioretti found that Colombian energy firms manage frequent fluctuations in the weather by diversifying their energy sources: During the dry season, when the cost of hydropower can increase as much as tenfold, firms increase their reliance on fossil fuels. The substitution allows market prices to increase less than they would normally in a time of drought; the coauthors estimate that Colombia’s firms could lower energy prices from 6 to 10 percent by increasing their non-hydro capacity. “The beauty of the mix of technologies is that firms can internalize the costs, so you have lower energy prices for the consumer,” Tamayo explains.

But fossil fuels obviously come with well-known costs, in the form of air pollution and negative effects to human health, and they don’t fit with the picture of a carbon-neutral future. Colombia’s example shows that abandoning fossil fuels altogether would increase the likelihood of blackouts and lead to higher prices. “What we really need are new storage technologies that can store electricity without the polluting effects,” Tamayo adds. Although they have been expensive to develop, storage technologies like batteries will be key to counteracting the volatility that’s to be expected when you’re counting on the sun to shine or the wind to blow.

Renewables account for 35 percent of global energy use. If we’re going to see that figure increase, governments around the world can play a major role in building the right incentives to focus on these non-fossil-fuel technologies, Tamayo says. “It’s a challenge we need to solve as soon as possible as a society.”

Post a Comment